samedi 4 avril 2020

Frequency and mortality on Everest


Photo : Antoine Bousquet, & Myke Ge, The EVEREST 8848m at 6 a.m. from the slopes of the Pumori

This article was successful in French, so I will try to translate it into English. I hope you will not blame me for the mistakes, my level in English is quite low and poor!
When I went in May 2017 climbing with my brother Myke in the Himalayas, on the slopes of Everest, my friends were worried telling me that fatal accidents were common and that the mortality is very high. Of course, climbing is more dangerous than playing petanque and the peaks of the Himalayas have a strong reputation maintained in 2015 by the film "Everest" of Baltasar Kormákur.
Before leaving for Nepal, I did a little research on the number of deaths, causes of accidents or deaths to comfort my friends and my darling and I present here the results of this investigation with an update of some figures (Dec. 2018).

Frequentation of Everest

First, before talking about mortality, let's talk about frequentation. A percentage that is not related to a number or a quantity does not mean much.  

It is difficult to find recent figures on the number of climbers who climbed Everest. However, there are valuable databases which lists allowed permits, expeditions, accidents, summit by summit and one is especially serious and complete, “the Himalayan database”. I recommend this database to those who likes numbers. 

In 2012, since the first expeditions of the 1950s, 19,121 people had been staying at the Everest base camp to attack the roof of the world. 6,206 mountaineers reached the top (including about 300 women), a success rate of 32%. 2/3 of mountaineers who tried Everest failed. Some died there...

In 2018, 9,159 successful climbs have been identified, made by 5,924 climbers of which 1,211 have summited several times (mainly Sherpas). 

The ascent of Everest has gone through four phases:

From 1950 to 1970: the period of great expeditions. 
Hitler had sent several expeditions to defeat the roof of the World and serve his propaganda but all failed. The Film "Seven Years in Tibet" is inspired of this story. In the period 1950 to 1953 several expeditions were organized with tons of equipment and food, several hundred people, with the goal finally reaching the roof of the world, which was done by sir Edmund Hillary and his Sherpa guide tensing Norgay the 29th May of 1953. With my brother, we met his son, Jamling Tensing Norgay, in Namche Baazar, photo below.
Photo : Antoine Bousquet & Myke Ge - Mai 2017 in Namche Baazar
From 1953 to 1970, the number of climbers to attempt the summit is very low. Only a few strings left the base camp and very few have reached the summit.

From 1970 to 1990 it was a period of transition with an increase of the expeidtions, few dozen every year. The first French expedition, directed by Pierre Mazeaud, reached the summit on October 15, 1978, I remember, it made a lot of noise at the time. The first French lady will reach the top on October 5, 1990, it is Christine Janin and I had the privilege of dining next to her with Catherine Chabaud (the first woman to have sailed the world alone and without assistance) the day before the departure of the Route du Rhum race in November 1998. What an extraordinary woman, not very big, but what dynamism, what a passion in her eyes ... We do not cross everyday people as special, powerful, exceptional ... I remember it like it was yesterday! My son Geoffroy was born 15 days after this dinner. 

During this 2 periods, between 1950 and 1989, 2,560 climbers tried to reach the summit and only 219 succeed, a success rate of only 8,55% ! This success rate has steadily increased over the years thanks to the technical progress, the equipment of the tracks, the organization of the expeditions ... For the only year 1990 it passed to 18% of success with 72 climbers at the top of the 400 who tried their luck.

And finally, from 1990 began the tourist exploitation of the summit with each year hundreds of mountaineers who embark on the assault of Everest. Everest has become a business, making Lukla the second largest airport in Nepal by frequenting. See my article on Lukla, one of the most dangerous airports in the world...
A business that was the cause of stupid competitions (subject in the film "Everest") between mountain climbing agencies, the cause of pollution because of tons of equipment and garbage abandoned in the base camps, accidents and deaths caused by a lack of preparation of amateur mountaineers...
Photo ; Antoine Bousquet & Myke Ge Everest Base Camp (EBC)
From 1990 to 2009, 5,742 mountaineers have tried the summit, 2,222 have achieved a success rate of 38.7%.
In the late 2000s, early 2010s, it was a crazy and excessive period. It was the time of records: the youngest at the top (2010, 13 years old), the oldest (80 years old), the surfing downhill, the running climb (16 hours), and especially queues endless at the summit causing serious accidents. Madness! When we see the photo (May 2012, base camp N ° 4), the queue from the base camp attack (8.000m) we really do not want to get involved in such stupid climb! Similar photos taken in 2019 are worse.

In the sole year 2012, 976 climbers arrived at the Base Camp and 547 succeed to reach the top : 56% of success. 

Everest has become a highway where all the ropes quit the base camp No. 4 the same day at the same time in direction of the south pass creating an endless Indian file. Personally, I find that it does not give envy to spend 50,000 dollars to end up in a queue like in front of a Disney World attraction!
There are two windows of a few days each to go to the summit, one end of May, the other in October, also during these few weeks, it’s the crush in the base camps and in the corridors, a cause of many accidents. In the 90s about 60 to 120 people reached the summit every day during this period of about ten days with great weather and limited crowds.  In 2011/2012 it was more than the double and the record was in 2018 with 802 summiteers. 
Since these excesses, the Nepalese state tries to control the affluence on the slopes of Everest to avoid this overpopulation. He has also launched several campaigns to evacuate garbage, abandoned materials that borders the route. He has greatly increased the trekker license and the Everest climbing license (permit), which is now $ 18,000. The cost of climbing Everest for a mountaineer is now around $ 70,000, 40% more expensive than 10 years ago. This price could be a drag but Everest is still more attractive. In May 2012, the 100th French since the rise of Pierre Mazeaud in 1978, reached the summit.

So, last known figure, about 1,000 mountaineers pass through base camps each year and 50 to 60% reach the summit.

Mortality on Everest

Obviously, it is not Mount Saint-Bruno near Montreal or Mont Ventoux in Provence or even Mont Blanc (4.810m), it’s Everest!  It’s one of the most beautiful places in the world but also one of the most dangerous. At the top, you are at the altitude of a commercial jumbo jet. The next time you fly, have fun watching the temperature depending on the altitude on the screen and you will quickly understand the difficulties facing mountaineers. Many of them have died there, and some - luckier – have loosed figers, toes or the nose. For example, Beck Weathers survived miraculously but lost his hands and nose (he writes a book about his adventure: “Left for Dead: My Journey Home from Everest”. 

Altitude is the first variable of the mortality rate. The higher you go, the higher the mortality rate increases, it makes sense because the higher you go, the more the MAM is doing damage, the colder it is ... It goes down after 8.500m because we do not stay long and it is very cold, there are fewer avalanches (1st cause of death) and falling rocks or seracs.
Table below describing altitude mortality rates for all peaks of the Himalayas (and only the Himalayas, not Annapurna). In blue the Western mountaineers, in red the sherpas.
Between 1953 and 2018, 295 persons died on the sole Mount Everest, 185 on the Nepal side (south) and 108 on the Tibet Side (North). 175 were climbers and 118 sherpas. So the mortality rate since 1953 is 5% considering climbers and only 3,22% considering ascents.

This figure of 295 dead doesn’t include the dead of the Hitler Ropes, the dead at the Base Camp or before the base camp, only the deaths that occurred in the final ascent. Of these 295 dead, 102 (35%) were mountaineers truing to to climb the summit without oxygen bottles, causing disturbances of consciousness leading to falls. In comparison, on the same period only 211 climbers summited without supplemental oxygen (2,3% of successful ascents). 
Most of the corpses beyond Camp No. IV are still in the snow. The final route to the summit is lined with many corpses, some of them serve as landmarks for mountaineers. See at the end of the article, if you have a good heart, images are shock!
During the period 1950-2009, 210 persons died on the Everest, 139 westerners and 71 Sherpas. During this period the mortality rate was 1,59% for climbers and 0,97% for Sherpas. 
With a death rate of 1,52% the Everest mortality is below the average of Himalayan peaks (1.55% in the in the table above ).

The deadliest peak in Nepal is K2 (which is not in these statistics because outside the Himalayas) whose death rate was 29% since the first ascent. (2013 figure: 306 climbers reached the summit; 89 dead).

The main causes of death:

On all the Himalayan peaks, and above the base camps, the first cause of death among Western mountaineers (608 deaths between 1950 and 2009) is the fall (39% of deaths), followed by avalanches (28,8% of deaths) then mountain sickness (7.6% directly, but it is very often the cause of another cause of death provoking, for example, a fall). See my article on MAM, Acute Mountain Disease. Rifts account for only 2.5% of fatal accidents.

On the Everest, the main causes are the same but Avalanche is the first one (26%) follow by fall (23%), altitude sickness (11%) and exposure (9%).

This other graph of the Himalayan Database is particularly interesting because it details the main causes of death in the Himalayan massif regarding the altitude.
22% of Western mountaineers died below the EBC (Everest Base Camp) altitude (5,350m), mainly due to avalanches and "other causes" but in fact mountain sickness is often the origin of the main cause of death. My Brother Myke published on his Face Book Wall (7 March 2017) an article about the death of an Australian mountaineer in Lobuche (4.910m), who died of exhaustion due to the MAM. Beyond 5.500m, in very high mountains, falls become one of the main causes of death
On another chart, it can be seen that 3.1% of Western mountaineering deaths occur in the middle mountain during the base camp trek (15.6% for sherpas!!!), and that most of the deaths occur during the physical preparation between the different base camps(44,4%). 

The top cause of death of these 44,4% is the avalanches, which is the risk N°1 1 between 4,000m and 7,000m of altitude.
In the particular case of the summit of Everest, the proportion of falls is much higher than other summits with 57.5%, but it would not be the only cause, these falls being in many cases the result of the first step of the altitude sickness that can disrupt vision and judgment. Unexplained disappearances, second leading cause of death at 8.3%, can also be a consequence of Mountain Disease, which directly causes 7.5% of deaths (pulmonary or cerebral embolism).

Conclusion : 

When you hear that a quarter of Mountaineers attempting Everest leave their life there, it is wrong, it should not be confused with the K2. The mortality rate since 1950 is 1.52% and is very strong decline each year because of the technicality of the clothes, the equipment of the tracks... 
In addition, three quarters of the deaths occur above 6.500m (a quarter between 6,500 and 7,000m) and personally my goal in 2017 was the EBC and 6.000m peaks, not to reach the Everest Summit. By precaution I wrote my last wishes and subscribe a specific insurance, but only because I’m prudent and predicting and also maybe because of my three children.  


Appendices :

Above Camp IV, the efforts are enormous and such that they cannot be devoted to the recovery of corpses also, these remain where their host died. Some corpses are used as a landmark for mountaineers, like "Green Boots" - one of the best known - where when you pass it, you know exactly how long it remains until the summit ... Everest is an open-air cemetery!
Green boots is the nickname of an unknown mountaineer, westerner or sherpa, we don't know, who would have succumbed during the storm of 1996 (that is the subject of the film "Everest") and who became a landmark for all mountaineers who tackle the summit from the north (Tibet). The body is at 8,460m between the attack camp (camp 5 on the north side, and the last technical obstacles of the ascent). He had green boots, which is quite rare in the range of high mountain thermal shoes (see my article on shoes, in french, sorry) hence his nickname. The photo above is also one of the best known of Everest’s corpses. His body was welded to the rock because of the frost (it never gets more than -25 ° at this altitude) but it seems that since 2014 we no longer see him, that he would have been moved and buried by the snow ...
Green boots was also the symbol of "every man for himself" which prevails in the death zone (> 7.900m) where life expectancy is… 48 hours and where, contrary to the philosophy of the mountain people, there is no question to risk his life to save a stranger. 

The other illustrious body (corpse, what is the right word in English?) of Everest is called George Mallory! He is not the best known, but he is my favorite. For good reasons. First he always wanted to climb Everest and when you asked why, he answered "because it is there" and it became a basic maxim for any mountain lover. He tried, he stayed there, in 1924…. And we never knew if he had gone to the top, it remains one of the mysteries of Everest. Maybe he was the first summiter? 
Then because in the film "Meru" (a masterpiece, the most beautiful extreme film in the mountains in my opinion) it is said that the hero Conrad Enker, the winner of the Meru, the most difficult mountain in the world, became famous by discovering in 1999, 75 years after his death, the body of George Mallory. 

Then another example of an illustrious corpse (there are more than a hundred, I had to choose), David Charp, who died in 2006, he scandalized me. He died near "Green Boots" during a solo ascent (well, there are some who seek complications) he ended up in hypothermia and wanted to join a cave he never reached but which his body shows the entrance to all mountaineers. Another landmark corpse. Until then, his story is a classic "incident" on the way to the summit of Everest, but where it becomes shocking is that more than forty climbers passed him by for two days, seeing that he was alive and unable to do something, and that no one stopped, that no one offered his help. It is absolutely contrary to all the rules of mountaineering where the priority is not the summit but the survival of the team and the people we meet , solidarity. So it is shocking!
His body was recovered in 2007 and lowered, at least one of the more than 8,000 corpses that will have had a traditional burial.

And finally, we could add the corpse of Rob Hall the hero of the film Everest. He had the values ​​of a mountaineer. He wanted to help one of his friends to achieve the dream of his life, but he screwed up, he forgot the basic rules of the high mountains. It is the mountain and the climate which dictates the law which is imposed on you. He forgot the fundamentals of survival for the benefit of the impulses of the heart… it is respectable. 

Photo Antoine Bousquet : Scott Fischer Mémorial
Photo Antoine Bousquet - Rob Hall Memorial
Photo Antoine Bousquet
Photo Antoine Bousquet